‘US Can’t Guarantee Even 50% Safety At Strait Of Hormuz’: Foreign Expert Robinder Sachdev

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One month into the ongoing Iran war, the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global shipping and energy flows, with traffic through the vital oil chokepoint remaining severely restricted.

Amid growing concerns over whether the United States can reopen and secure the passage, foreign affairs expert Robinder Sachdev told ABP Live that Washington lacks the capability to ensure safe transit through the strait. He also raised serious doubts about the United States’ ability to reopen and secure the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz amid escalating tensions.

Hormuz Security Guarantees Remain Uncertain

Responding to a question on whether the US Armed Forces could ensure safe passage through the strait despite Iran’s asymmetric advantages, Sachdev told ABP Live the US does not appear capable of fully reopening or securing the Strait of Hormuz.

He noted that there is currently no active US naval operation in the region, and even if Washington were to launch one using military force, it would likely inflict damage on Iran but still fall short of ensuring safe passage for ships.

“On the question of what would happen to the Strait of Hormuz, my answer is that, for now, it seems the US is not capable of keeping it open or securing it. Currently, as you know, there is no US Navy operation there. But the thing is, if the US starts any operation there and tries to open the Strait of Hormuz with firepower, it would cause significant damage to Iran. Yet, it still would not be able to guarantee even 80%—let alone 100%—safety for the ships passing through,” he said.

Iran’s Capabilities Pose Challenge

Sachdev explained that the US would struggle to guarantee even a high level of safety for commercial vessels, pointing out that Iran’s capabilities make the situation highly complex. These include small submarines, naval strike systems, sea mines and other forms of asymmetric warfare that can be deployed to disrupt shipping.

Sachdev also highlighted the geographical advantage Iran holds along its coastline. He pointed out that Iran’s military posture, combined with its geography along the narrow maritime corridor, creates persistent vulnerabilities for anyone attempting to secure uninterrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

“This is because Iran has various small submarines, naval attack capabilities, mines, bombs, and more. Additionally, the coastal region of Iran is mountainous, with caves and water within them where they have hidden their drones and some anti-submarine and small submarines. They will strike from there, continuing to cause damage,” Sachdev said.

He underlined that even a full-scale US military intervention may not translate into assured safety for commercial vessels, which might continue disruptions and potential losses.

“So, the US will not be able to provide 100% security—maybe not even 50%—and there will be losses. The net result, therefore, is that I don’t see the US being able to secure the Strait of Hormuz on its own, or even with NATO,” he added.

One Month Into War, West Asia Crisis Deepens

As the Iran war completes one month, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has solidified into a major global flashpoint, with disruptions to shipping and energy flows continuing to rattle markets and raise geopolitical tensions.

The crisis has escalated further with US President Donald Trump intensifying pressure on Iran to reopen the vital waterway. Speaking at a recent summit, Trump referred to it as the “Strait of Trump” before correcting himself, while insisting that Tehran is under pressure and engaged in negotiations. He has also warned of severe consequences if the passage is not reopened, though a deadline has been extended amid ongoing talks, now set for early April.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical energy transit chokepoints, making any prolonged instability a matter of global concern. With negotiations underway but no breakthrough yet in sight, the situation signals a prolonged period of uncertainty for global trade and energy security.