UP Politics: Owaisi’s Entry Reshapes 2027 Poll Equations, Puts Akhilesh On Edge

With the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections approaching, political parties have begun sharpening their strategies. While the contest in the state is widely seen as a close fight between the Samajwadi Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has also started asserting itself between the two. 

After gaining momentum in the Maharashtra municipal elections, Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi appears confident about expanding his party’s footprint. With less than a year left for the 2027 electoral battle, Owaisi is increasingly being viewed as a significant factor in the contest between Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav. 

Recently, the Hyderabad MP said people were asking how many seats the party would contest in Uttar Pradesh and indicated AIMIM would fight the elections with full strength. His plan has sparked fresh political calculations in the state. 

When asked about Owaisi’s entry, former UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav remarked that Owaisi would “come as a question on the cycle.” Following this comment, speculation has grown that the Samajwadi Party could explore alliance talks with AIMIM. 

Muslim Voter Influence in UP 

In Uttar Pradesh, 14 districts have a Muslim population of more than 25 percent. Statewide, Muslims account for roughly 20 percent of the population. Out of 403 Assembly constituencies, Muslim voters have a notable influence in 143 seats — with 70 seats having 20–30 percent Muslim population and 73 seats having more than 30 percent. 

Despite this demographic presence, AIMIM has struggled electorally in UP. In both the 2017 and 2022 Assembly elections, the party performed poorly. In 2022, AIMIM contested 95 seats but secured only 0.49 percent of the vote. 

Political analyst Vijay Upadhyay said it would not be correct to assume BJP would automatically benefit from Owaisi’s entry. However, he noted that if AIMIM fields Hindu candidates in Muslim-dominated seats, the BJP could face challenges. 

Meanwhile, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has reiterated his “bantoge to katoge” message. Speaking at an event on 9 February, he said that division would “open the path to destruction.” 

AIMIM’s Strategy and Claims 

Former AIMIM UP unit president Israr Ahmad has claimed the party will strongly contest 200 seats in the state and aim to ensure that no government is formed without its support. He added that people from all communities, not just Muslims, are joining the party. 

A look at the last four elections shows Muslim MLA numbers have fluctuated — 56 in 2007 when BSP came to power, 68 in 2012 under Akhilesh Yadav, 24 in 2017 when BJP formed the government, and 34 in 2022. 

Historically, parties focused solely on Muslim politics have remained on the margins in UP. Whether it was the Muslim Majlis Party in 1968 or IUML in 1974, electoral success remained limited. In recent years too, AIMIM candidates lost deposits in the 2017 and 2022 elections. 

AIMIM UP president Shaukat Ali has claimed the Samajwadi Party cannot remove the BJP from power and that only his party can do so. 

Will AIMIM Form an Alliance in UP? 

On alliances, Shaukat Ali said the party wants a third front to emerge in Uttar Pradesh and suggested that an AIMIM–BSP alliance would be better. While the Samajwadi Party has indirectly hinted an understanding with Owaisi, the Congress has advised caution regarding AIMIM. 

Political equations for 2027 remain fluid, but in the 2022 elections, Owaisi’s presence reportedly hurt Akhilesh Yadav in several seats across Saharanpur, Moradabad, Bijnor, Bhadohi, Sultanpur and Jaunpur.