UAE-India Defence Push Sparks Panic In Pakistan After MBZ’s Delhi Visit

India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have signed a Letter of Intent to begin work on a framework agreement for a strategic defence partnership, a move that has triggered sharp reactions in Pakistan. The LoI also reflects an ambitious economic target, pushing bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2032. Pakistani commentator Qamar Cheema described the development as unprecedented and claimed it had delivered a “major setback” to Pakistan. He highlighted the optics of the India-UAE engagement, suggesting that the depth of leader-level interaction indicated discussions beyond routine diplomacy. The UAE President visited India with a high-level delegation on January 19 and the two sides signed the LoI after an extended closed-door engagement.

Defence Push, $200 Billion Trade Target

The LoI marks the start of formal work on a strategic defence cooperation framework between New Delhi and Abu Dhabi. Alongside defence cooperation, the economic agenda remains central, with both sides indicating the intent to expand trade volumes significantly by 2032. The engagement is being projected as a major step in strengthening India-UAE ties across security, investment and long-term regional cooperation.

Cheema said he had “never seen” such a format in a high-level meeting, claiming that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan were seated together without other officials present during key parts of the interaction. He argued that such a setting suggested highly sensitive discussions that both sides may not want to publicly disclose. He also noted that the UAE delegation included senior figures, including the defence minister, pointing to a strong security dimension in the engagement.

Cheema further claimed that the UAE’s defence agreement with India was “not a joke”, suggesting Abu Dhabi had moved decisively after Pakistan and Saudi Arabia strengthened security alignment. He framed the move as a strategic response in the Gulf, saying Saudi Arabia stood with Pakistan while the UAE appeared to be positioning itself closer to India.

‘Region Has Changed’ Narrative

The Pakistani analyst claimed the LoI must be viewed in the context of shifting alignments after Pakistan-Saudi defence engagement. He argued that regional geopolitics was being reshaped, with Middle East dynamics increasingly intersecting South Asian rivalries. He suggested that both India and the UAE were factoring Pakistan into their security calculations, indicating a larger strategic transition in the region.