Only thirty-six hours ago, Trump’s envoys were meeting with a high-level Iranian delegation in Geneva to discuss a diplomatic solution.
The initial noises were positive. Conversations that I had with figures involved in those negotiations were optimistic that the sides were drawing close to a provisional agreement, although some obvious and significant gaps remained.
Notably, one issue that wasn’t discussed was Iran’s ballistic missile programme – which alarmed the Israelis because of the threat those missiles pose to them.
US and Israel strike Iran – follow latest
On Friday morning, Oman’s foreign minister Badr Albusaidi, who has mediated several rounds of talks, including those in Geneva, flew to Washington at short notice to brief US vice president JD Vance in person.
Albusaidi then gave two extremely rare interviews on US television to explain what was on the table. It was a desperate and honest attempt to keep the sides talking.
But there were already signs that things were unravelling.
Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, sent an email to embassy staff on Friday morning warning them that if they wanted to leave the country they “must do so TODAY”.
It had an air of unplanned urgency, rather than a controlled diplomatic evacuation.
Perhaps they had just learnt something was imminent. Maybe Netanyahu, who has always been deeply sceptical of negotiations, had already decided to attack.
British diplomats were relocated from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, as they were during the 12 Day War last June. Western embassies and military outposts around the region were emptied of non-essential staff.
Then late on Friday evening I started to hear word of a possible attack overnight. From my own experience of multiple Middle East wars, it’s very hard to pick out the truth from a wall of noise, but the signs were clearly bleak.
The cork is now out of the bottle.
People watch as smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran. Pic: AP
President Trump, with the help of Israel, is going for regime change. It’s all or nothing.
Iran’s ability to respond might be limited, following the attack on its ballistic missile sites last summer, but already strikes have been reported across the Middle East, not just Israel.
The Iranian regime won’t roll over; they will die fighting and will drag the region into a wider conflict if needs be.
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