Assam Opinion Poll 2026: BJP Set To Retain Power, Congress Trails Behind

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Matrize and Chanakya polls for Assam indicates that the BJP-led alliance is poised to retain power with a clear advantage over the Congress-led bloc. The surveys point to a comfortable lead in both vote share and seat projections, suggesting continuity in governance. While the Congress alliance remains the primary challenger, it appears to trail significantly. Smaller parties are expected to have limited impact, reinforcing a largely bipolar contest as the state heads towards Assembly elections.

Vote Share Edge (Matrize)

• BJP+: 46%
• Congress+: 36%
• Others: 18%

The vote share figures underline a strong lead for the BJP-led alliance, reflecting consolidated voter support. The Congress-led alliance, although maintaining a notable presence, lags behind by a considerable margin. The share for other parties remains relatively small, indicating limited electoral influence in the broader contest.

Seat Advantage (Matrize)

• BJP+: 92-102 seats
• Congress+: 22-32 seats
• Others: 4-7 seats

Seat Projection (Chanakya Strategies)

• BJP+: 83-90 seats
• Congress+: 30-36 seats
• Others: 3-6 seats

Seat projections further reinforce the BJP-led alliance’s dominance, placing it comfortably above the majority mark. The Congress alliance is expected to secure a modest number of seats, positioning it as the principal opposition but well short of forming government. Other parties are likely to win only a handful of constituencies.

Clear Political Trend

The findings point to a decisive trend in Assam’s political landscape, with the BJP-led alliance maintaining a firm grip on voter support. The combination of higher vote share and strong seat projections suggests electoral continuity rather than a shift in power.

While polls are subject to change due to last-minute shifts and local factors, the opinion polls indicate that the ruling alliance enters the electoral race with a significant advantage, setting the stage for a largely one-sided contest.