The entry of Yemen’s Houthi rebels into the war on the side of Iran has stoked fears that the oil crisis affecting global trade could get worse.
Threats of Iranian mines and missiles have kept the crucial Strait of Hormuz largely closed, with oil tankers held up leaving the Gulf and sending the price of a barrel skyrocketing.
Saudi Arabia, one of the biggest exporters of oil in the world, has instead been sending millions of barrels of crude oil a day through Bab el Mandeb, another narrow waterway on the other side of the country.
This avoids Hormuz and takes ships further away from Iran.
However they still pass close to Yemen, where the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have stocks of missiles and drones that can be used to harass shipping – as they did between 2023 and 2025.
If shipping through the Bab el Mandeb Strait – which connects to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal – is disrupted, it could exacerbate the already fraught economic situation caused by issues with the Strait of Hormuz.
What have the Houthis done before?
Between November 2023 and January 2025, the Houthis attacked more than 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones.
Two vessels were sunk and four sailors killed during the campaign.
Military ships were deployed to the area to try and safeguard commercial shipping, including the UK’s HMS Diamond Type 45 destroyer.
While there, it shot down Houthi drones, including one notable operation where it shot down seven.
Closure of Bab el Mandeb strait could have ‘clear and significant’ economic effects
A full or even partial shutdown of shipping through the Red Sea would have clear and significant economic effects globally and here in the UK.
Even renewed attacks, without the militant group taking over the key shipping route, would have major impacts.
We don’t even have to imagine what they may be; we need only look back a few years.
Houthi attacks around Christmas 2023 resulted in more dangerous conditions, which led insurance costs to spike.
Adding to this cost pressure was the fact ships were routed around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, adding between 10 and 14 days to a journey.
As a result, booking a slot to ship goods shot up in price.
Longer journey times and changed routes also led to supply chain disruption, with businesses scrambling to get items on ships and onto shelves in time.
Supply chain woes also resulted from the Ever Given container ship blocking a vital entry point to the Red Sea, the Suez Canal.
It was this blockage that formed part of the initial surge in price rises in 2021 and 2022 that gave rise to the cost of living crisis.
Major container carriers rerouting to avoid Red Sea
Africa’s largest container port – Tanger Med in Morocco – said on Monday that it is preparing for increased calls by ships as tensions in the Middle East continue.
It comes as major ​container carriers including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM said they are rerouting vessels around the Cape ​of Good Hope in South Africa, avoiding the Bab el Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea.
Oil tanker traffic in the region. Pic: Vesselfinder
Idriss Aarabi, managing director of Tanger Med, said higher fuel costs have added further pressure on freight rates due to the longer voyages.
He said carriers have introduced war-risk, emergency conflict and deviation surcharges of between $1,500 (£1,133) and $3,300 (£2,493) per standard container.
Bab el Mandeb: In numbers
20: That’s how many miles wide the strait is.
25%: Around a quarter of global container trade passes through the strait on its way to and from the Suez Canal.
12%: How much of the world’s total trade typically passes through the Suez Canal.
Doonited Affiliated: Syndicate News Hunt
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