Friedrich Merz’s bid to become Germany’s 10th chancellor unexpectedly fails in first round of voting

Europe’s richest nation is looking unusually unsure

We already knew that Friedrich Merz was struggling to win over the public.

What we didn’t realise was that it would be so hard to convince his own coalition that he’s the right person to lead Germany.

This is the first time since the war that a presumptive chancellor has failed to win a confirmation vote after coalition negotiations.

Even if he does end up earning the job at a second vote, Merz is already a beleaguered figure.

And his coalition, which was already reliant on a tiny majority, now looks about as robust as a paper hat in a thunderstorm.

Merz’s popularity has been battered from both sides – first, in January, when he passed a motion through the Bundestag only after getting the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party that Germany’s intelligence agency has declared a threat to democracy, but which may now be the most popular party in the country.

Then, in a move that seemed even more infuriating to some of his supporters, he agreed a deal to push through a trillion Euros’ worth of new loans – something he had previously ruled out.

The irony of all this is that Merz had promised to usher in a new era of constancy and firm leadership after years when Olaf Scholz, the outgoing chancellor from the SPD party, was criticised for lacking decisiveness or political heft.

But recent polls suggest that public trust in Merz – before he even starts the top job – is low.

Only 21% of respondents, in a poll carried out by Stern last month, considered Merz to be trustworthy.

What’s more, the Trump administration has thrown its weight firmly behind the AfD.

Before the election, Elon Musk had an online chat with the party’s candidate for chancellor, Alice Weidel, in which he endorsed her and her policies. 

Since then, the AfD has been supported by both Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Their support inevitably both undermines Merz and also chisels away at the stigma of supporting the AfD. 

It also creates the bizarre situation that the most powerful political establishment in the world is offering support to a party that has been labelled a threat to democracy by its own nation’s security and judicial system.

Merz is no political novice, but this is high stakes stuff. He will, almost certainly, still end up as chancellor, but a difficult job has already become much, much harder. 

If he tries to hold up his centrist coalition with the SPD he will be attacked, relentlessly, by the AfD and perhaps by Washington.

If he tries to extend a hand of friendship towards the AfD his coalition will probably collapse.

Europe’s richest nation is looking unusually unsure.